Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."